Happy Fall! Well, interest rates have been rising, now near a 23-year high, and I was expecting home prices to soften as a result. However, inventory remains low in SW Idaho and that has helped to support local home prices. People are understandably more hesitant to move and trade in their low rate for a much higher payment, so this may help to keep inventory low until mortgage rates subside.
As to home prices, I think we are returning to the normal annual bell curve shape, where prices are up in the middle quarters of the year and down in the off seasons.
I use existing homes to judge trends in prices, since new construction is a smaller sample size and can vary wildly. Median prices serve best as a guide to what's happening with home prices- half are lower, half are higher. It's the mid-point. Averages can be skewed by a few on the extremes.
Ada County's median existing home price of $525,537 for the third quarter was up just $537 from the previous quarter, so basically flat. Year over year, Ada's price was also flat. That big 10.5% jump in the second quarter brought us back to even from a year ago. Even after the wild swings, the third quarter median is also the same as 2 years ago.
Canyon County existing home prices were a bit stronger than Ada, rising 2.4% during the third quarter to $399,000. Year over year, the median is down just two tenths of a percent.
Looking ahead, the latest spike in interest rates and the seasonal slow-down should cause prices to drop in the fourth quarter. With the low inventory I don't see it being as large as last year's dip. Bargain season (winter & holidays) is coming and I am ready to serve!