Sept 1, 2024 Update
Ada County- Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Kuna, Star
Canyon County- Nampa, Caldwell, Middleton
What you need to know about buying or selling homes and real estate in the Boise Idaho metro area, my charts have 15+ years of data showing history, current conditions and major trends in the local housing markets to help you judge the timing of buying and selling property. Save this to your favorites and check in monthly.
Highlights from August
Local markets maintained momentum in August. After slowing in July contract signings increased slightly in August with lower mortgage rates (dropped to a 16-month low). Total available listings also increased slightly.
Overall housing supply based on the pace of sales dropped slightly to a 1.66-month supply. Star is now the tightest market in the Boise Metro with just under a 1-month supply. Market times also increased a few days to average 28 days in Ada County (half sold in 18 days) and in Canyon County averaged 37 days (half sold in 23).
Mortgage Rates Update
Here is a 50-year history of the annual average on mortgage rates according to Freddie Mac and where we are today. Last week's rate of 6.35% is well below the 50-year average of 7.65%.
This next chart shows the weekly Freddie Mac survey average for the last year. Thanks to inflation easing, the Fed is signaling a likely reduction in the prime rate in September and mortgage rates have already begun to decrease in anticipation of that move. Now at a 16-month low. More purchasing power for you!
Housing Inventory in Boise Metro
This chart of available homes for sale in Ada & Canyon counties shows how extreme the inventory crunch has been in the Boise Metro and SW Idaho housing markets. Since 2008 when we had 3 times as many available homes and prices were falling, the number of available listings trended lower each year until Covid.
These are all available listings in Ada & Canyon County on the first business day of each month, including all types of single-family homes, both existing & new construction. Covid in 2020 and doubling interest rates in 2022 have caused some wild swings over the last 4 years. There is some good news for buyers- more homes available than last year. It is important to note, the actual available to occupy inventory is much lower than it appears here, as many are to-be-built or under construction. See pie charts below for breakdowns of available inventory.
Boise Idaho Metro Homes Sales
Sales are a trailing indicator on the market- the actual marketing and sale happened under conditions at least a month prior to the majority of sales. Home sales follow the typical four-season trend in Idaho, with the peaks and valleys moving upward over time in these charts of homes sold per month reflecting the growing population and housing stock in the Treasure Valley.
These charts show all residential single-family property sold each month, including townhomes, condos and manufactured. The red line shows new construction in Ada County. You can clearly see the Covid spike in early 2020 and the downward trend in home sales since mortgage rates jumped in 2022. Although slightly above last year, home sales this year remain rather soft in Ada County compared to years past.
Canyon County market trends have roughly mirrored Ada, but home sales have been slightly stronger here, presumably due to more affordable prices. Canyon County new construction also had a strong spring and was on an upward trend. That big dip in the middle was the snowy cold winter of 2017.
Supply & Demand Drives Home Prices
Pending homes (next month's sales) are the best forward-looking indicator of buyer demand. Dividing actives by pendings, we get a supply of homes in months that is very reliably predictive of future trends in home prices. According to NAR, a 5-6 month supply of homes for sale is a balanced housing market where prices are stable or slowly rising and neither buyers nor sellers have a distinct advantage. To know where home prices are going in any local market, look at housing supply levels.
Here's the local picture of supply & demand with Ada & Canyon counties combined. If no more homes were listed, at the current pace of sales we would run out in just 1.66 months. That's down from 1.7 months in July. Still very much a seller's market, but sales typically peak in July in Idaho, so buyers should face less competition going forward.
Ada County, Idaho
Including the cities of Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Star and Kuna, here is an overview of the Ada County housing markets looking at trends in supply, demand and inventory of homes for sale. Below is the current snapshot of all homes for sale in Ada County.
Available existing home listings increased in Ada County, while new construction is maintaining level. There are only 48 more homes on the market this month in Ada County- 2095 total. Of those, 835 are new construction, including 340 under construction and 310 complete. New construction again accounts for 40% of available homes. Below is the same data in a line chart showing the historical trends in the market.
Regular sellers of existing homes tend to follow seasonal trends with most listings mid-year in favorable weather. My chart starts with 5 years of ever-tightening seller's market, then a wildcard Covid year. Then interest rates doubled in 2022 causing available existing homes to spike, but that bubble evaporated quickly.
Ada County today has 835 new homes available, up 22 from the prior month. This represents a 3.26-month absorption rate at the current pace of sales as indicated by the 259 closed last month.
The cheapest stick-built new home available in Ada County was $324,900 for a condo. All Ada County new homes- median sold price for Aug was $539,990. Average was $615,372.
Foreclosures and short sales have been very rare in SW Idaho for the last decade, but there are 2 foreclosed homes and zero short sales available in Ada County.
Boise, Idaho
The crown jewel city of the Treasure Valley in SW Idaho and Idaho's capital city, Boise is the largest housing market and typically leads the way in local real estate trends.
For Aug, Boise had 305 existing home sales (Med $485,000 Avg $549,752 Avg days on market 26, median 15)
This chart shows the count of active and pending (under contract) home listings on the first day of each month, illustrating the velocity of listings and sales. This includes all types of new and existing single-family homes: condo, townhouse, manufactured, stick-built with and without acreage.
Contract signings increased by 15 while active listings rose by 14 in Boise for the month. The lines are no longer inverted, but remain very close together, indicating a tight market. Boise again has a 2-month supply of homes for sale.
These pie charts show the breakdown by seller of all active homes for sale on the first day of each month. Boise had 821 total homes for sale to start the month, up 14 from the month prior. New construction now makes up 20% of the available pie with 35 homes under construction and 98 completed.
Meridian, Idaho
Located in the center of the Boise metro area, Meridian is destined to grow simply by location. Recently named the best place to raise a family in the nation, Meridian is about half the size of Boise with similar home prices.
For Aug, Meridian had 137 existing homes sold (Med $524,900 Avg $549,752 Avg days on market 27, median 21)
Available listings (blue line) held steady and pending contracts (red line) fell slightly last month in Meridian, but the lines are still very close together, indicating a very tight market. Meridian now has a 1.76-month supply.
Meridian had 499 total homes listed for sale to start the month, adding just 2 from the previous month. New construction now makes up 49% of the available pie with 96 homes under way and 128 completed.
Eagle, Idaho
With beautiful golf courses and growing greenbelt along the picturesque Boise River, Eagle is the higher-priced community in the Treasure Valley where you will find many of the largest, most expensive homes.
For Aug, Eagle had 44 existing homes sold (Med $798,750 Avg $1,003,224 Avg days on market 40, median 27)
Contract signings in Eagle dropped while available listings increased last month. Eagle now has a 2.21-month supply. Highest in the valley, but also the most expensive homes.
Eagle had 292 total homes for sale to start the month, up 15 homes from the previous month. Now 38% of the available homes are new construction, including 36 homes completed and 55 under construction.
Star, Idaho
A rising star in the Treasure Valley with river valley/rolling hills topography. Many people are relocating to Idaho and choosing this still-quaint little town for lower prices (compared to Eagle), relatively short commute and a great name.
For Aug, Star had 18 existing homes sold (Med $664,500 Avg $676,649 Avg days on market 31, median 28)
Available listings rose by 5 in Star last month as contract signings jumped by 36. Star now has just a 0.96-month supply of homes for sale at the current pace of sales. Can't get much tighter.
Star's total inventory was 267 homes for sale to start the month. That's up 5 from the month prior. Now 79% of the available pie in Star is new construction with 129 under way and 56 completed and available.
Kuna, Idaho
Kuna has the lowest home prices in Ada County, making it popular for first-time buyers. Located just 10 miles south of Meridian and freeway access, Kuna has a cute little downtown and many starter level homes. Many people are choosing Kuna over longer commute and higher property taxes in Canyon county. Plus growth in the commercial sectors is catching up to residential around Kuna.
For Aug, Kuna had 42 existing home sales (Med $409,025 Avg $465,034 Avg days on market 31, median 14)
Available listings grew by 10 and contract signings dropped by 5 in Kuna last month. Supply in Kuna now stands at 1.44-months.
Kuna available listings totaled 216 homes to start the month, up 10 from the month prior. Now 53% of the available homes are new construction. Builders have 77 homes finished and 25 more under way.
Canyon County, Idaho
Canyon County covers a large rural area of small towns. I focus on the metro area- Nampa, Caldwell & Middleton. I take the same readings every month, which works for identifying general trends.
On Sept 1, there were 1181 total homes for sale in Canyon County, down 9 from the month prior. Of those, 560 are new construction including 310 homes completed and 138 under way. The cheapest new stick-built home available in Canyon was $329,900. All new homes sold in Aug- median $454,490 Average $557,913.
Existing home listings peaked last month, while builders put up many more completed homes. This might be a good time to look at new homes in Canyon County. Several large builders are offering large incentives to help with closing costs or rate buy-downs. Ask me about this. I recently sold a Lennar (nation's largest builder) home and it was a great value with incentives!
Nampa, Idaho
With a revitalized downtown, Nampa is the largest city and main traffic hub of Canyon County. The housing market here suffered with higher rates but will soon recover with such tight inventory.
For Aug, Nampa had 126 existing home sales (Med $380,000 Avg $438,655 Avg days on market 33, median 22)
Nampa now has a 1.47-month supply. Available listings fell slightly last month, while contract signings turned upward.
Nampa had 545 total homes for sale on Sept 1st, adding 37 from the previous month. A batch of 51 homes are under construction and 137 new never occupied homes await buyers here. Now 45% of the available pie is new construction.
Caldwell, Idaho
Home of the world famous rodeo, a budding wine industry and one of the most affordable cities in the Boise metro area. Centrally located and the Canyon County seat, this is a growing city.
For Aug, Caldwell had 65 existing home sales (Med $376,500 Avg $405,892 Avg days on market 29, median 15)
Contract signings turned upward while available listings surged again last month. Caldwell supply has dropped to a 1.75-month supply. Maybe better deals for buyers with more choices!
Caldwell had 359 total homes for sale on Sept 1st. That is up 17 homes from the previous month. New construction grew to 58% of the available pie this month with 124 completed homes awaiting buyers and 50 more under way.
Middleton, Idaho
At the far northwestern edge of the Boise Metro, Middleton is a small but growing town with very affordable home prices and many homes with acreage that make the home prices seem higher.
For Aug, Middleton had 27 existing homes sold (Med $775,999 Avg $734,250 Avg days on market 60, median 32)
Contract signings levelled off and new listings increased last month. Middleton now has a 1.67-month supply of homes for sale based on the current pace of sales.
Middleton had 190 total homes for sale on Sept 1st, up 10 from the previous month. The new construction segments represent 55% of the available pie with 29 under construction and 46 completed homes available.
All charts are based on MLS data, deemed reliable but not guaranteed, searching all single-family housing types in the Boise-Nampa Metro, new and existing, including stick-built, homes with acreage, condos, townhouses, manufactured homes on rented lots and with land.
If you find this information useful, I would love to hear about it. Drop me a note. Thanks, Dan Rowe