September 2023 Update
Ada County- Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Kuna, Star
Canyon County- Nampa, Caldwell, Middleton
What you need to know about buying or selling homes and real estate in the Boise Idaho metro area. My charts have 15+ years of data showing history, current conditions and major trends in the local housing markets to help you judge the timing of buying and selling property. Save this to your favorites and check in monthly. Also see my latest quarterly newsletter.
Highlights from August
Interest rates have recently spiked, causing unsold listings to continue rising, while the number of homes going under contract continues to decrease in both Ada & Canyon counties. Looking forward, the result will be rising supply, softer sales and less upward pressure on home prices.
Today we have a 1.5-month overall housing supply in the Boise Metro. This is still extremely low by historical standards and home prices should be rising quickly, but volatile interest rates make this indicator less reliable for now.
Market times for existing homes sold in August rose to nearly a month on average with a median 13 days on market. So, half the homes sold last month were on the market for less than 2 weeks. Proof that we're still in a housing shortage.
Mortgage Rates Update
Interest rates may not be a local factor, but they do affect most buyers. Here is a 50-year history of annual average rates according to Freddie Mac and where we are today. The long-term average is 7.65% and we are still below that.
This next chart shows the weekly average since the previous peak in November 2022. Last week rates hit a 22-year high.
Housing Inventory in Boise Metro
This chart of available homes for sale in Ada & Canyon counties shows how extreme the inventory crunch has been in the Boise Metro and SW Idaho housing markets. Since peaking in 2008, the number of available listings has been trending lower each year as population grows, inventory lags behind and homes sell faster.
These are all available listings in Ada & Canyon County on the first business day of each month, including all types of single-family homes, both existing & new construction. Last year, available listings in both Ada & Canyon counties exploded upward as higher interest rates priced buyers out of the market and slowed sales. This spike receded over the winter thanks to interest rates falling back some. Now inventory is growing again. It is important to note, the actual available to occupy inventory is much lower than it appears here, as many are to-be-built or under construction. See my pie charts below for breakdowns of available inventory.
Boise Idaho Metro Homes Sales
Sales are a trailing indicator on the market- the actual marketing and sale happened under conditions at least a month prior to the majority of sales. Home sales follow the typical four-season trend in Idaho, with the peaks and valleys moving upward over time in these charts of homes sold per month, reflecting the growing population and housing stock in the Treasure Valley.
These charts show all residential single-family property sold each month, including townhomes, condos and manufactured. The red line shows new construction in Ada County.
For several years prior to Covid, I think Ada County home sales were constrained by record-low inventory, not because demand slowed. Then came the unexpected Covid boom in 2021. In 2022 demand fizzled with rising interest rates. Thanks to mortgage rates peaking in November, we had the slowest winter in years. Sales picked up this spring with dipping mortgage rates, but are about to slow again in both existing and new construction.
Canyon County market trends have roughly mirrored Ada. These most recent fluctuations are due to interest rates moving up or down.
Home sales in Canyon County had been trending steadily upward for a decade with strong population growth. Sales fell hard last year when mortgage rates started rising but surged again this spring. It appears Canyon County new construction is carrying a little more momentum than Ada, presumably due to more affordable home prices. That big dip in the middle was the snowpocalypse of 2017.
Supply & Demand Drives Home Prices
Pending homes (next month's sales) are the best forward-looking indicator of buyer demand. Dividing actives by pendings, we get a supply of homes in months that is very reliably predictive of future trends in home prices. According to NAR, a 5-6 month supply of homes for sale is a balanced housing market where prices are stable or slowly rising and neither buyers nor sellers have a distinct advantage. To know where home prices are going in any local market, look at housing supply levels- also called the absorption rate.
Here's the local picture of supply & demand with Ada & Canyon counties combined. If no more homes were listed, at the current pace of sales we would run out in just 1.5 months. Thanks to higher mortgage rates- for the first time in my career- NAR's table did not hold true in 2022- prices were down in both Ada & Canyon counties despite historically low supply. We should be seeing strong appreciation- instead the market is highly sensitive to fluctuations in interest rates.
Ada County, Idaho
Including the cities of Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Star and Kuna, here is an overview of the Ada County housing markets looking at trends in supply, demand and inventory of homes for sale. Below is the current snapshot of all homes for sale in Ada County.
There are 107 more homes on the market this month in Ada County- 1807 total. Of those, 727 are new construction, including 284 under construction and 300 complete. New construction grew to 41% of available homes. Below is the same data in a line chart showing the historical trends in the market.
Regular sellers of existing homes tend to follow seasonal trends with most listings mid-year in favorable weather. My chart starts with 5 years of ever-tightening seller's market. Then a wildcard pandemic year. Then interest rates doubled in 2022 causing available existing homes to spike and then recede over the winter. Existing inventory is now growing again.
Ada County today has 727 new homes available, up 102 from the prior month. This represents a 3.4-month absorption rate at the current pace of sales as indicated by the 214 closed in August. Builders in Ada County have fewer projects ready to start (red line), more started (green line) and have started adding more inventory of completed homes (purple line).
The cheapest stick-built new home sold in Ada County last month was $319,990 for a townhouse. All Ada county new homes median sold price for August was $576,970. Average was $696,307.
Foreclosures and short sales have been very rare in SW Idaho for the last decade. There will be more, based on historical foreclosure rates.
Boise, Idaho
The crown jewel city of the Treasure Valley in SW Idaho and Idaho's capital city, Boise is the largest housing market and typically leads the way in local real estate trends.
For August, Boise had 311 existing home sales (Med $465,250 Avg $532,480 Avg days on market 26, median 13)
This chart shows the count of active and pending (under contract) home listings on the first day of each month. This includes all types of new and existing single-family homes: condo, townhouse, manufactured, stick-built with and without acreage.
Contract signings slowed again in Boise last month, while active listings increased. The lines are still very close together, indicating a tight market. Prices could easily rise- if interest rates will cooperate.
These pie charts show the breakdown by seller of all active homes for sale on the first day of each month. Boise had 743 total homes for sale on Sept 1st, up 43 from the month prior. Boise inventory based on the pace of sales grew from a 1.64-month to a 2.17-month supply last month. New construction now makes up only 21% of the available pie as builders have finished a few more new homes recently.
Meridian, Idaho
Located in the center of the Boise metro area, Meridian is destined to grow simply by location. Recently named the best place to raise a family in the nation, Meridian is about half the size of Boise with similar home prices.
For August, Meridian had 132 existing homes sold (Med $475,000 Avg $542,004 Avg days on market 24, median 13)
Available listings (blue line) increased by 15 and pending contracts (red line) dropped 15 last month. Meridian inventory based on the pace of sales grew to a 1.5-month supply. Home prices should be rising in Meridian with such a tight market.
Meridian had 465 total homes listed for sale on Sept 1st, adding just 15 for the month. New construction now makes up 48% of the available pie with 105 homes under way and 95 completed.
Eagle, Idaho
With beautiful golf courses and growing greenbelt along the picturesque Boise River, Eagle is the higher-priced community in the Treasure Valley where you will find many of the largest, most expensive homes.
For August, Eagle had 66 existing homes sold (Med $845,000 Avg $1,122,167 Avg days on market 28)
Contract signings dropped by 31 in August while available listings increased by 10 last month. Based on the pace of sales, Eagle supply stands at a 2.7-month supply, highest in the valley again.
Eagle had 218 total homes for sale on Sept 1st, adding just 10 for the month. Now 38% of the available homes are new construction, including 29 homes completed and 30 under construction.
Star, Idaho
A rising star in the Treasure Valley with river valley/rolling hills topography. Many people are relocating to Idaho and choosing this still-quaint little town for lower prices (compared to Eagle), relatively short commute and a great name.
For August, Star had 21 existing homes sold (Med $515,000 Avg $587,952 Avg days on market 31, med 16)
During August, available listings jumped by 18 in Star while contract signings eased slightly, pushing supply based on the pace of sales up to a 1.5-month supply.
Star's total inventory was 218 homes for sale on Sept 1st. Now 79% of the available pie in Star is new construction with 79 under way and 53 completed and available.
Kuna, Idaho
Kuna has the lowest home prices in Ada County, making it popular for first-time buyers and investors. Located just 10 miles south of Meridian and freeway access, Kuna has a cute little down town and many starter level homes. Many people are choosing Kuna over longer commute and higher property taxes in Canyon county. Plus growth in the commercial sectors is finally catching up to residential around Kuna.
For August, Kuna had 23 existing home sales (Med $445,000 Avg $516,434 Avg days on market 27, median 15)
Available listings increased by 19 while contract signings fell by 9 in Kuna last month. With a 2-month supply of homes now, inventory is climbing.
Kuna available listings totaled 132 homes on Sept 1st, adding 21 for the month. Now only 54% of the available homes are new construction. Builders have sold a bunch, but have 29 homes finished and 34 more under way.
Canyon County, Idaho
Canyon County covers a large rural area of small towns. I focus on the metro area- Nampa, Caldwell & Middleton. I take the same readings every month, which works for identifying general trends.
As of Sept 1st, there are 848 total homes for sale in Canyon County, up 79 for the month. Of those, 386 are new construction including 137 homes completed and 125 under way. The cheapest new stick-built home sold in Canyon last month was $285,900 for a townhouse. All new homes sold in Aug- median $476,492 Average $592,807
Inventory is climbing again with higher interest rates and more existing homes are available again this month. Builders have unloaded much of their inventory in Canyon County and are building it up again.
Nampa, Idaho
With a revitalized downtown, Nampa is the largest city and main traffic hub of Canyon County. The housing market here really crumbled with higher rates but has started to recover.
For August, Nampa had 150 existing homes sold (Med $387,500 Avg $433,229 Avg days on market 20, median 10)
Nampa remains one of the hottest markets in the Treasure Valley. Available listings grew slightly and contract signings faded slightly last month. Nampa still has the tightest supply in the valley with just over a 3-week supply based on the pace of sales.
Nampa had 404 total homes for sale on Sept 1st, adding 50 from the previous month. A batch of 59 homes are under construction and 46 new never occupied homes await buyers here. Again 44% of the available pie is new construction.
Caldwell, Idaho
Home of the world famous rodeo, a budding wine industry and one of the most affordable cities in the Boise metro area. Centrally located and the Canyon County seat, this is a growing city.
For August, Caldwell had 72 existing home sales (Med $374,950 Avg $411,831 Avg days on market 31, median 14)
Contract signings fell by 32 and available listings grew by 5 last month. Caldwell inventory is now the second tightest in the valley with just a 1-month supply today. Caldwell has one of the best chances to see price increases- depending on interest rates.
Caldwell had 204 total homes for sale on Sept 1st. That is up just 5 homes from the previous month. New construction grew to 50% of the available pie this month with 44 completed homes awaiting buyers and 45 more under way.
Middleton, Idaho
At the far northwestern edge of the Boise Metro, Middleton is a small but growing town with very affordable home prices and many homes with acreage that make the home prices seem higher.
For August, Middleton had 30 existing homes sold (Med $497,450 Avg $637,388 Avg days on market 44)
Both contract signings and available listings increased last month. Middleton now has a 1.3-month supply at the current pace of sales.
Middleton had 148 total homes for sale on Sept 1st. That's up 8 homes from the previous month. The new construction segments now represent 56% of the available pie with 16 under construction and 34 completed homes available.
All charts are based on MLS data, deemed reliable but not guaranteed, searching all single-family housing types in the Boise-Nampa Metro, new and existing, including stick-built, homes with acreage, condos, townhouses, manufactured homes on rented lots and with land.